In research which does not use qualitative instruments, how do you know that your research is reliable? Generally speaking, research is reliable if the instrument yields the same results on repeated trials. The National Research Council report also argues that educational research must be scientific and can “yield findings that replicate and generalize across the studies” (Feuer, Towne, Shavelson, 2002, p. 5), but how can we replicate the findings of ethnography which mainly looks at human behavior?
I had a chance to talk to a museum program evaluator who has Ph.D in Education. Dr. Deborah Perry uses a methodology called “naturalistic inquiry” which studies a group of people in natural settings. She recommended me to read a book by Dr. David Williams, which is available online (http://education.byu.edu/ipt/williams/index.html). In Chapter 5, he talks about standards for judging natural inquiry and touches on the issue of reliability.
First, he defines naturalistic inquiry
- focuses on discovery and participants interactions
- claims that realities are multiple, constructed, and holistic
- holds that only-time and context-bound working hypothesis
- claims that the knower and the known are interactive and inseparable
In addition, he says that each of us constructs a view of reality different ways. Thus, it is essential to seek for each person’s interpretation/construction of reality, instead of finding out a “true” definition of everyone’s experience. In other words, we cannot generalize human behavior. Therefore, I think that reliability of naturalistic inquiry and qualitative research depends on how researchers accept their own and others’ subjectivity and project it onto the interpretation of constructed reality. I think it is fun to think about how ethnographers think about the reliability of their research projects.
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Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT...
PREPARE FOR THE WORST...
Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.
PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.
The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard fall.
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SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY
Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: "How well the market is trending?"
And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.
Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:
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